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Of course, prostitutes in Zimbabwe may have more than 100 partners a year, just as prostitutes elsewhere in the world do, but most HIV-positive Zimbabweans are not prostitutes.In the early 1990s, Martina Morris, then a member of the sociology and public-health departments at Columbia University (and now a professor of sociology and statistics at the University of Washington in Seattle), tried to solve the mystery of HIV in Africa mathematically.

The virus has spread extremely rapidly in Botswana.Botswana seems an unlikely place for an AIDS epidemic.Vast and underpopulated, it is largely free of the teeming slums, war zones, and inner-city drug cultures that epidemiologists say are typical niches for the human immunodeficiency virus. Shortly after gaining its independence from Britain in 1966, large diamond reserves were discovered, and the economy has since grown faster—and for longer—than that of virtually any other nation in the world.The growing disaster has forced AIDS experts to reconsider old theories about how HIV spreads in Africa.Outside of sub-Saharan Africa, many HIV-positive people are injecting drug users, prostitutes, and highly promiscuous homosexual men who may have hundreds of different sexual partners every year.

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